The Democratic Primaries - a Drama, or a Tragedy?

Ever since the Bush administration began its nosedive, Democrats have been expecting with increasing certainty to win back the White House in '08. Many analyses show these expectations are well founded.

First, there are the sheer numbers of voters turning out in the early caucuses and primaries. Democratic Iowans turned out in record numbers to caucus for their party's candidates, while Republican caucus goers numbered far fewer.

Second, and the cause of the first, there's the sheer energy surrounding the candidates. There hasn't been this inspiring a Democratic field of candidates in recent memory, and for voters used to the relative soporific splendor of Gore and Kerry, this group hits the jackpot.

Third, there's the fact that the Republican field is less than awe-inspiring. There's no clear front-runner, and (related to "First"), there seems to be little buzz about the field of candidates.

But if you're a Democrat looking toward November, the New Hampshire primary results are a bit troubling. Now, if you're a Hillary fan, then you may think otherwise - certainly her dramatic and emotional comeback was a moment of reassurance, if not vindication, for those who have worked since the end of the first Clinton era to ensure its return. Primary "futures", which are sold like stocks, show Clinton with a 60.1% chance of winning the nomination, compared to Obama's 37.6%. Clinton has returned to her previous position as front-runner.

Republican primary "futures" show a four-man race: McCain 34%, Guliani 30%, Huckabee 19%, and Romney 10%. The trouble for Democrats comes in the potential matchups in the general election, and it seems that the perfect storm is being more and more strongly forecast in the shadow of New Hampshire.

When pitted against every possible Republican nominee, Obama wins by a comfortable margin. The exception is John McCain, with whom he seems to be in a statistical dead heat. Clinton, however, despite (and perhaps on account of) being the most likely Democratic nominee, enjoys a less rosy picture. She is in an extremely close race with both Guliani and Romney. And McCain? She's down about 5%.

Of all the possible combinations of nominees, the one that seems the most likely to result in a Republican victory in November is Clinton/McCain. And now take a look at who won the New Hampshire primary.

The Democratic playbook:

1) Take aim at foot.
2) Fire.